Preparing for the 1997 Yearling Sales

July marks the beginning of my favourite season in Harness Racing. The 3-year-old racing wars are well under way, as the pretenders to the thrones in respective divisions are making their marks in the Classic races. Malabar Man ... No Nonsense Woman ... Dream Away... Sanabelle Island - they lead the way today, but what will happen next week as these warriors continue in their head-to-head battle to establish supremacy?

July also marks the debut of the freshmen of the sport. This year's 2-year-olds have begun to spring up after nine months of training, ready to make prophets of their trainers - who boldly told the Owners months ago ... "This is the best 2-year-old I've ever had". It's a wonderful sight to behold, as these precocious youngsters - "babies" - exhibit their green speed and desire. Who will the next great freshman be? How will the Presidential Balls and Life Signs and American Winners turn out? Stay tuned, or you're sure to miss out on a great performance in every given week.

While it is exciting to watch what is currently happening throughout the sport, July also marks the time to begin preparing for the fall sales, in the hope of being the owner of next year's champion. This is a difficult objective, but not impossible, as attested by the many successful owners in seasons past. This month, BLOODlines will take a look at some interesting information that might help you in your preparation for the upcoming yearling sales.

In the March '97 BLOODlines, we looked at - and compared - the five lowest and highest priced yearlings of North American sires, and found that the performances of these opposites were remarkably similar. "They don't know their purchase price", and there is no guarantee that spending more on a yearling will result in increased profits. In fact, on the "bottom line", the opposite may be true. Many will argue this point, but my research over the past two decades stands firm. And this year will be no different.

In 1996, there was a total of 614 2-year-olds that earned more than $20,000 in their freshman season. Of these, 317 were sold at public auction in North America. The rest were homebreds or private purchases. So right off the bat, 48.4% of all $20,000+ winning 2-year-olds were never examined by an "outsider". When you go to buy at the sales, you are not only racing against the thousands being sold at auction ... you are also going to have to compete against the thousands that are among the "select few" retained by top breeders and their connections. For this reason alone, I would never recommend buying from a consignor that races his own stock. When you are considering trying to beat the world, why on earth would you want to start out with someone's "culls"? If you can't beat the "keepers" from the consignor's stable, how do you think you'll do against the best from all the other farms? And in a game as tough as the yearling one, you don't need to start off in a one-down position.

In 1996, eight of the top 13 earning 2-year-olds were homebreds. These included the richest trotting filly, Koochie ($698,937) ... richest pacing filly, Michelle's Jackpot ($548,975) ... and richest trotting colt, Malabar Man ($464,041). In fact, three of the top four trotting fillies were "keepers" - Koochie, Razzle Dazzle Tom and Elegantimage. Tough sledding.

In the 1995 Fall Sales, over 4,500 yearlings were sold for an aggregate total of over $66,000,000. Of these, only 317 (6.9%) managed to earn over $20,000 as 2-year-olds in 1996 ... 138 (3.0%) earned more than $50,000 ... and just 63 (1.4%) eclipsed $100,000 in earnings.

What can you say? The fact is that out of every 1,000 yearlings sold at public auction in 1995, 15 of them - whether filly, colt, trotter or pacer - earned more than $100,000 as a 2-year-old. I have heard over the years that only 25% of all yearlings make it to the races as 2-year-olds, and that may be true - but when only 6.9% of all yearlings sold make a reasonable dent ($20,000+) into their training and staking bills, it becomes blatantly clear how difficult it is to succeed as an owner - and what a high-risk endeavour the yearling game is.


High-priced Yearlings in 1995

I can hear the weeping and wailing already, so let's get something out of the way right now. Not all high-priced yearlings are bad buys. For instance, Yankee Glide, 2, 1:56 earned $342,977 last year - a very good return on his $110,000 purchase price. And one could argue that Village Jove, p, 2, 1:51.4; 3, 1:49.4 was a good purchase by virtue of a $116,697 return on his $100,000 sale price.

But there were 23 pacers that sold for over $100,000 as yearlings in 1995. Of these, Village Jove was the only one to earn more than $37,000 as a 2-year-old, and only six of the 23 pacers earned more than $20,000.

Trotting yearlings fared little better - of the 27 $100,000+ yearlings in 1995, three (Yankee Glide, Grill Now and Winged Victory) earned more than $100,000 at two, though only Yankee Glide made a profit. And only six of these "elite" yearlings earned more than $20,000 in 1996.

So, 21 trotters and 17 pacers sold for over $100,000 in 1995 made less than $20,000 at two. And this is not an aberration - similar observations have been true for years. They really don't know their purchase price - but you do.

Conclusion

The statistics show that only 63 yearlings sold at public auction in 1995 made over $100,000 as 2-year-olds in 1996. These included two filly trotters, a colt trotter and a colt pacer that sold for over $100,000 as yearlings. But the group of $100,000+ earning freshmen also included 21 performers that fetched $20,000 or less at their respective auctions. For the record, they were:

So, of the 63 $100,000+ winning 2-year-olds sold at auction in 1995 33% sold for $20,000 OR LESS!! These 21 colts and fillies sold for an aggregate total of $234,900, just slightly more than the highest priced trotting (Yankee Mischief) and pacing (Raycer Thad) yearlings. Each of these specimens sold for $210,000, and Raycer Thad managed to earn $27,344 back. Yankee Mischief raced three times last year, but failed to earn a dime.

In the meantime, a stable including the 21 listed above would have grossed $3,153,775!! The bottom line is ... don't forget to look 'em all over. There are some great buys out there. Til next time ...