They Don't Know Their Purchase Price

   This months topic is one that has never been very popular with the major breeders in the sport. After all, they tend to have the most fashionably-bred mares, crossed to the most popular sires, and expect to command top dollar at the annual yearling sales. And, inevitably the top farms accomplish that objective. And so they should. Their yearlings are examined by all of the top trainers in the sport, trainers who often won't even consider yearlings consigned by lesser farms. These trainers have the financial backing of some very financially solid owners, who would rather spend more than less on a yearling. Some of these owners would feel slighted if a trainer offered them an inexpensive yearling!

But historically, the top-priced yearlings DO NOT tend to provide good value. This is a well publicized and documented statement, and not one that should generate much controversy. The stats show that since 1944, the 53 top-priced yearlings have been, by and large, a relatively poor investment. Of these, only the following have earned back their purchase price: Victory Song (1944), Mighty Sun (1948), Voting Trust (1950), American Way (1953), The Intruder (1954), Bret Hanover (1963), Effrat Hanover (1964), Dexter Hanover (1969), Falcon Almahurst (1976), Supergill (1986), and Winky's Goal (1991). Only eleven (21%) have earned their purchase price during their careers.

On the other hand, 21 of these "elite" individuals made less than $10,000 lifetime. For those who like percentages, that's 40% who could not manage to earn back anywhere near their purchase price.

Nonetheless, every year, I hear from numerous corners that you have to have major money to have a chance at purchasing a yearling that has a glimmer of hope of making a race-horse. This is simply not so.

This month, I have decided to border on the absurd...by comparing the top-five priced yearlings of various sires, with the BOTTOM-five priced yearlings. I think you'll be surprised by the results.

Pacing Sires (yearlings of 1995)

Abercrombie: His top five yearlings sold for a total of $559,000. Four of the five took sub-1:58 marks as 2-year-olds in 1996, and two made more than $20,000...Keep Your Pans Off ($37,545) and She's Eligible ($24,025). His bottom five yearlings sold for $25,600 total. None took marks, and none earned more than $20,000.

Albatross: His top five yearlings sold for $216,000, and featured two in 1:58 and one $20,000+ winner, Brilliant Mindale p, 1:56 ($50,576). His bottom five sold for $30,400 in total. None took marks. Of note, Albatross' richest and fastest 2-year-old last year was the $10,000 yearling Honus Hylite p, 1:53.4 ($138,338).

Artsplace: The top-five sold for a total of $720,000, and featured two race winners, neither of which earned $20,000+. His cheapest five yearlings sold for $28,700, and boasted two in 2:00, including Outright Happy p, 1:55.3.

Beach Towel: Top five totaled $575,000, and had four of the five take marks last year, three in 2:00. The top earner of the group was Timbo-Timbo ($28,000). The bottom five sold for a total of $12,300, and featured Yankee BT p, 1:56.1 and Amber Plumstead p, 1:58.

Big Towner: His top-five sold for $192,000, and resulted in two with 2-year-old marks, including Racing Wampum p, 1:58.4 ($40,450). The other end of the spectrum saw five sell for $20,500, and result in two with marks, including Sneaky Hanover p, 1:56f, a $3,500 yearling that was race-timed under 2:00 in 8 of 10 starts.

Cam Fella: All five of Cam Fella's top yearlings - which totaled $670,000 - were race winners last year (four in 2:00), but only one, Toofunnyforwords p, 1:57.2 ($36,488) earned more than $20,000. None of Cam's five cheapest (totaling $31,400) took marks, though his $4,200 colt (the lowest Cam at public auction) Scuba Cam was race-timed second in 1:55.4, and paced 10 of 14 starts in 2:00 or better.

Dexter Nukes: His top five sold for $365,000, and featured four race-winners, including Put Up Your Dukes p, 1:55.2 ($62,845) and $22,000 winner Armbro Plutonium. His five basement purchases totaled $15,400, and featured Daylon Hopeful p, 1:57.4f ($72,079), a $4,000 yearling.

Die Laughing: The top five sold for $502,000, and starred Lookwhoslaffinnow p, 1:55.1, though none of this group earned $20,000+. The "bargain basement five" sold for $14,500, with two taking marks including Hawaiian Gold p,1:55.4f, a four time winner of $16,000.

Dragons Lair: The top five ($300,000) resulted in one 2-year-old with a mark, while the bottom five ($21,000) netted two with marks, including $4,500 yearling McRama p, 1:59.4h ($69,846), Dragons Lair's third richest 2-year-old

In The Pocket: The most striking example of the importance of a purchase price comes with this son of Direct Scooter. ITP's top five ($90,500) featured four with marks, including two in 2:00. But none earned over $20,000. Meanwhile, his "worst" five sold for $12,500, and included Perfected p, 1:54.4 ($63,508)...Pocket Of Cash p, 1:56.3f...and Spirit Dance p, 1:58.3f.

Jate Lobell's top-five ($420,000) included standouts Megamind ($228,804) and Giggles N Grins (30,056), while only one of his bottom five ($32,400) took a marks. However, two of these cheapies were race-timed in 2:00 or faster.

Kentucky Spur's top five ($137,000) included Valid Hanover p, 1:55.1, who won less than $20,000, while his bottom end ($21,000) featured Lu Lu Spur p, 1:57.1f ($31,898).

Laag's five highest priced yearlings in 1995 sold for $166,000. Of these, one took a mark (2:00.3) and none earned more than $20,000. Meanwhile, his cheapest ($10,500 for five of them) included Hard A Lee p, 1:55 ($53,832) and Raani Hanover p, 1:56.2 ($30,653).

Matts Scooter: Of his top five ($348,000), Wrestling Matt p, 1:52.2 ($83,970) was the only one to take a mark. The bottom five ($17,300) featured Battalia Hanover p, q1:56.3, as well as two other starters race-timed in 2:00 or better.

No Nukes' top five ($368,000) included three winners, two in 2:00, with Frienship Hanover the richest ($32,637). His bottom five ($26,500) fared slightly worse, as No Flat Tax p, 2:03.3h ($1,827) led the way.

On The Road Again ($121,000 ... $16,800), Precious Bunny ($379,000 ... $29,500)and

Run The Table ($242,000 ... $28,900) all featured no winners from their bottom five sales prospects. In the meantime, from their top five, Precious Bunny gave us Explosive Bunny p, 1:52.3 ($95,650) and Run The Table's most expensive yearling was also his richest, as Ruthellenkillean p, 1:56.1h racked up $206,231 in earnings.

Walton Hanover's Starter Hanover p, 1:57.4f, a $2,700 yearling and part of a fivesome that totalled $13,100, took a faster mark than any of the top five yearlings, which totalled $71,000 as yearling investments.

And even though Western Hanover managed to produce two in 2:00, both of whom earned more than $20,000 (Western Dreamer was the richest of these with $41,130) from his top five ($242,000 total)...his five at the bottom of the barrel held their own, as they included Sheer Image p, 2:00.1h ($17,755) and Pallas Athena ($6,000+), both of whom were multiple sub-2:00 race-timers last year.

 

Trotting Sires (yearlings of 1995)

Naturally, these examples only pertain to the pacing side of the breed, where speed can come from anywhere. The trotting-bred horse is much purer in blood. Trotting trainers are much more astute. The cheapest trotters cannot compete in the same way as the pacers. WRONG on all counts...

Armbro Goal: His top five yearlings totalled $189,000. Of these, As Usual, 2:00.4f was the only one to take a mark, and he did not earn more than $20,000. But Armbro Goal's bottom five yearlings sold for $34,500, and included Raging Samantha, 2:01 ($31,166).

Arnies Exchange did not have a race-winner or $20,000 earner from his top five ($44,900), but had Opaline Nancy, 2:06.2 from a bottom five that totalled $8,100.

Balanced Image and Baltic Speed both performed well with their top-five, though neither had a performer crack $50,000 in earnings. Neither saw a 2-year-old from their bottom five earn a mark.

Nearly Perfect only had one freshman trotter eclipse the $20,000 earning barrier in 1996. That was Caitrin, 1:59.3f ($77,846), his cheapest yearling, at $4,500, who was joined by one other in the lowest tier to take a mark. Meanwhile, only Shogun Kosmos, q2:01.4, a $48,000 yearling, managed the feat among a top-five that totalled $230,000 in yearling investments.

Speedy Crown's top five sold for an aggregate $564,000, and saw two take marks, the richest being Grill Now, 2:02.2h ($126,334), a $165,000 yearling. At the other end of his list, three of the five took marks, including Sharon Crown, 2:01.2 ($132,702). Sharon Crown was the CHEAPEST Speedy Crown yearling in 1995, at $11,000.

Even the great Valley Victory saw his sales stats get turned upside-down. Of his top five yearlings, totalling an incredible $1,010,000, only Valley Guardian, q2:02.1 took a mark. Yet he earned less than $20,000. In the meantime, Rising Victory, 1:59.3 ($24,210) was Valley Victory's fifth cheapest yearling, albeit at an astonishing $35,000.

 

Summary and Conclusions

First of all, let me be clear that I am NOT recommending that you go out and buy the cheapest yearling that you can find. I simply chose to compare the absolute opposite ends of the yearling price spectrum. I have done this in the past, and the results have been remarkably similar. And this has always left me somewhat shocked....

The highest priced yearlings tend to be looked over by the top trainers - one takes the final bid, and another (or others) are the underbidders. These yearlings are extremely well-bred, well-conformed individuals...wind up at the best facilities...are liberally staked to the Classics and more...and more often than not, they Don't earn their keep.

The lowest priced yearlings have had their page turned because of their bloodlines... had an X drawn through the page due to their poor conformation...end up training on a backroad...are staked to little (if anything)...and still have a good chance to make their owners successful.

In the history of the sport, there has been a multitude of "perfect" looking standardbreds that may have won awards as show-horses, but could do nothing on the racetrack. And there have been many, many "cheap" individuals who have gone on to make their mark on the breed. It's a matter of record.

Next time someone tries to convince you that if you "Don't have $40,000+ for a yearling, you can't buy nuthin", you tell them - confidently - "They Don't know their purchase price"... (lucky thing, or there'd be a lot of depressed horses every year)...

 

Ralph.

 

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