History has repeatedly shown that the future of the breed is beyond the scope of accurate human prognostication. Over and again, there have been those who predicted this or that sire to be the genesis of the next predominant male line. And over and again, their predictions have fallen by the wayside. On the other side of the same coin - those tail-male lines that have been "destined for doom" have often risen again, as if to mimic Samuel Clemens ("rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated").

Over the next three months, we will take a step back to the beginnings of the breed, then work our way forward to the present day ... all the time trying to make sense of the unravelling of the bloodlines that has brought us to the here-and-now. And (heaven forbid!!), we'll try to come to some conclusions as to where the breed will be in a decade or two. Scary thought, in this month of Halloween - that in thirty years from now, I too will likely have joined the great "seers" of the past on the dusty shelves of failed predictions.

Then again ... nothing ventured ... nothing gained.

The Past

Hambletonian 10 ... the prognosticators of the present place tremendous emphasis on those who predicted that Hambletonian would become the foundation stallion of the breed. They were, of course, correct in their assumption, and opened the door to all "future-thinking" folks to come.

Hambletonian was first bred (for free) to four mares when he was two years old (1851), and produced three foals. One of his greatest-producing sons, Alexander"s Abdallah, came from that crop. Subsequent years would find Hambletonian's stud fee climb to an astonishing $500.00, and see him cover as many as 217 foals in a single season. During the course of his 24 seasons at stud, Hambletonian produced 1,331 foals, a remarkable achievement by any standards.

Among these foals were some of the greatest racehorses of the day: George Wilkes, Dexter, Administrator, Sentinel, Jay Gould, Maud, Nettie, Alma, Artillery and more. Sons and grandsons of Hambletonian were the hot commodity for the rest of the century, and by the year 1900 many of the top performers claimed multiple links to that great progenitor - through grandsons and granddaughters of Hambletonian.

Little credit has ever been given to the other lines of the sport, for despite the lip-service given to the "importance" of the mare, the sire-line has continued to maintain the eminent position in the minds of breeders.

But in their day, the Mambrino Chief line produced a myriad of top performers as well. And, the significance of Mambrino Chief is firstly this ... both he and Hambletonian were from the same sire-line themselves! Hambletonian was by Abdallah, who in turn was by Mambrino (a son of Messenger). And Mambrino Chief was by Mambrino Paymaster, also a son of Mambrino.

Sadly, Mambrino Chief would only produce five full crops before dying in Kentucky at 18 years of age. Included among those crops was Lady Thorne, who defeated Goldsmith Maid in all six times they met, and was the only trotter to beat Dexter. And, Mambrino Chief would prove to be a sire of top sires as well - Mambrino Patchen, Woodford Mambrino, Mambrino Pilot, Clark Chief and others from his very limited stud career.

In the end, the legend of Mambrino Chief would be rooted in the production of his mares. None of the best daughters of Hambletonian could compare to those of Mambrino Chief, who counted among his matrons the Maternal fountainheads Jessie Pepper, Dolly, Belle, Fanny, Pickles and Queen Dido. Similarly, his sons would produce great mares, and when crossed to the sons and grandsons of Hambletonian, the Mambrino (Messenger) line completely obliterated all other breeds of trotters.

An interesting story (in my mind) arises from the life of Woodford Mambrino, who was foaled in 1863, the last crop of Mambrino Chief. A tremendous racehorse in his day, Woodford Mambrino was raced from the age of three until 15, and bred sparingly to mares along the way. In all, he produced about 100 foals, of which more than 60 took records, or produced Standard individuals - a remarkable record in his day. One of his sons, Pancoast, produced a trio of stallions (Patron, Prodigal and Patronage) before being sold for a record $28,000 as a stallion in 1886.

The following year, Pancoast was struck by lightning and ruined as a stallion - at 10 years of age. The importance of this to the breed was lost upon the day. But in hindsight, Patronage produced Alix t, 2:03 3/4 (1894), the last World Champion outside the Hambletonian line.

It would seem that the Mambrino Chief line was fated to take the role of providing the maternal lineage needed to ensure the success of Hambletonian-line sires. If you trace any pedigree back to the turn of the last millennium, you will find multiple links to Mambrino Chief and his sons in the mare's pedigree, as well as in the dams of the sires. Yet, all credit will continue to go to Hambletonian, despite Mambrino Chief being the second-greatest progenitor in the history of the sport. And Mambrino (the grandfather of both) will continue to languish in virtual obscurity.

Practically all of the performers in the world of Standardbred racing trace to Hambletonian. There are of course the Orloff trotting lines from Russia, and the French lines through Fuschia (1883), Normand (1869) and Phaeton (1871), but the impact of these on the sport pale in comparison to that of the Hambletonian progeny.

Hambletonian produced five sons whose descendants would carry the sport to the present day. They were George Wilkes (1856), Dictator (1863), Happy Medium (1863), Strathmore (1866) and Electioneer (1868). But as we will see, only two of these lines is currently florishing, with the last hanging by a very slender thread.

Dictator created a line that would become one of the foremost pacing fountainheads in the sport. Dictator ... Director ... Direct ... Direct Hal ... Walter Direct ... Billy Direct. Ah, Billy Direct p, 1:55 - the stuff of legends. He would produce, from an abbreviated stud career (he died at 13 years of age), Little Brown Jug winners Ensign Hanover (1946), Dudley Hanover (1950) and the legendary Tar Heel (1951). But alas, none of these sons was able to produce a dominant progenitor, although Tar Heel did produce scores of useful sires. The Dictator sire line was destined to find its demise with the daughters of Tar Heel.

Strathmore would find his future through Steinway ... Charles Derby ... Owyhee ... Mambrino Derby ... and into New Zealand folklore by way of Globe Derby ... Logan Derby ... Johnny Globe and finally Lordship, one of the top sires in the history of the "Down Under" scene. But again, the future of this line has been limited, and Strathmore will become, like Dictator, a footnote to the greatness of Hambletonian.

George Wilkes virtually dominated the trotting line of the sport in the early part of this century. Through William L. ... Axtell ... Axworthy ... and Guy Axworthy, the George Wilkes line appeared destined for greatness. But Guy Axworthy's son Lee Axworthy died at seven, and that branch ended with his grand-son, Spencer. Truax carried on a pacing line that led to the great Cardigan Bay, and a trotting line through Calumet Chuck that culminated with Nibble Hanover and Chiola Hanover. Yet the George Wilkes (Axworthy) line hangs on by a thread, on a branch through Guy McKinney ... Spud Hanover ... Florican ... Songcan ... Nearly Perfect and finally to Sierra Kosmos.

Happy Medium virtually "owns" trotting today, in a line that began with Pilot Medium, then to Peter The Great, who in turn produced the one-two punch of Peter Scott (1909) and Peter Volo (1911). Peter Scott gave us Scotland ... Spencer Scott ... Rodney ... Speedster and finally Speedy Scot - from whom the branches have so far led to Arnie Almahurst ... Arndon and Pine Chip in the one instance ... and to Speedy Crown (and his sons) ... Speedy Somolli ... Baltic Speed and Valley Victory (and all his sons) in the other.

Happy Medium also gave us pacing lines, predominantly through Volomite. These include the line through Poplar Byrd to Bye Bye Byrd, which has ended with Keystone Ore and Its Fritz. But most significantly, we find the link through Sampson Hanover ... Sampson Direct to Direct Scooter and his sons ... most significantly Matts Scooter.

Electioneer's descendants "own" pacing. Through Chimes, and his son The Abbe, Electioneer has placed a strangle-hold on the pacing breed. The Abbe produced Bert Abbe ... Gene Abbe, then Big Towner and his sons. But most significantly, The Abbe's son Abbedale, through his son Hal Dale, has established the strongest and most influencial pacing line of the past 50 years. Adios, Good Time and Dale Frost are legendary as pacing sires in the sport. Although the Good Time influence has long since perished (on the sire side of the pedigree) - Dale Frost, through his son Meadow Skipper, thence to Most Happy Fella and Albatross has established a legacy that will abide for decades to come. And, just when it appeared the Adios sire line would be relegated to a supporting role, along comes a son of Silent Majority - Abercrombie - and Hal Dale is raised to epic status as the sire of sire-lines.

And so, on the trotting side of the ledger, Happy Medium has established his dominance of the breed. But George Wilkes will not let go.

And on the pacing side, George Wilkes has been nola contendre since Duane Hanover, Dictator since the sons of Tar Heel, Strathmore since Lordship, and Happy Medium sends Direct Scooter and his sons to do battle for the future of pacing"s bloodlines with the formidable get of Electioneer through The Abbe.

Over the next two months, we will look at the more recent past and present of pacing and trotting - and track the complex inter-weaving, ebb and flow undulation of the sire-lines. Who knows ... maybe there'll even be a prediction or two. Nothing ventured ...

Ralph