October '96

Postscript to September's Predictions:

If there's one thing you think I would have learned, after 20 years of involvement in the Standardbred industry, it would be the "value" of predictions. I remember years ago, writing a story about Take A Look. This son of Most Happy Fella was just $12,000 away from achieving Millionaire status, when I boldly wrote that he "will become the most unsung millionaire in the history of the sport". Well, guess what readers? You got it... in his next start, Take A Look shattered his pastern, sending him prematurely to the breeding shed.

Last month, I predicted that Continental Victory would become the first filly to win the Triple Crown of Trotting. That prediction appeared safe-in-hand, given that she had absolutely annihilated her male counterparts in the Yonkers Trot, Hambletonian and the World Trotting Derby. It seemed a lead-pipe cinch after a discussion with Bill O'Donnell in Lexington, where he told me there was no 3-year-old trotter in the world that could beat her. But... lameness did.

She'll still be Trotter of the Year. And I think she'll be Horse of the Year. But, there I go "predicting" again!

To make matters worse, Jeremys Gambit, the 2-year-old phenom that was the focal point of my August article, got beat for the first time at Lexington. Drats! Maybe it's Lexington that jinxes me. After all, it appears that A Stud Named Sue and CR Kay Suzie (July's Blood-Lines) are doing okay... so far. I'm going to get away from predicting, as far as race performances go, and turn my thoughts to a different kind of "forward planning"... broodmare selection.

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Broodmare Selection

Photo courtesy of Monica Thors

Without going into too great detail, as this subject could fill at least one book, when I go through the annual Mixed Sales Catalogues, there are six main categories that I explore when considering potential broodmare purchases. These categories are, in order of importance (to me), Bloodlines, Consignor, Past Production, Crosses, Conformation and Race Performance.

Bloodlines:

  I suppose it goes without saying, that we'd all like our pacing mares to be by Albatross, Abercrombie or No Nukes, and our trotting mares by Speedy Crown and Super Bowl. And, while the importance of the sire of the broodmare is not to be under-rated, I don't think it should be over-emphasized either.

  But I think the mare's maternal family should be taken into very serious consideration. Some families show up with generation after generation of producing mares, no matter the sire. A mare from these lines, even if by a "second-rate" stallion, will produce beyond expectations. This, as opposed to a well-bred mare from a short and weak maternal line, mares which regularly fall short of their promise.

Consignor:

  This item fits very highly in my list of considerations, because there are many very good reasons for selling a broodmare, none of which is a good reason to buy. The consignor knows the mare, her weaknesses, conformation faults in the foals, and a myriad of other characteristics of the mare that you don't need to own. So, there are only a few consignments that I would seriously consider buying from:

Past Production:

  Naturally, it makes sense if one is purchasing a broodmare, to take into consideration the past production of the mare in question. Each year, I pull out my past sales results, to see the yearling prices garnered by the mares I like. And, if their yearling prices have been above average for their sires, I expect to see that they have been above-average performers.

  Often, I'll search deeper, and check into the trainer of the past yearlings. If a horse was sold for more than the average for his sire, the chances are that a number of people were interested in him, that he was a good-looking individual, and that he ended up in the barn of a reputable trainer. If he still didn't race well... time to turn the page, and go on to the next mare.

  When examining the mare's production, I want to see a mare that has been a regular producer, as opposed to missing the odd year. And, one must take into consideration the foaling date. Will the mare end up foaling this year, but missing next year, because she'll be foaling late?

  Of course, sometimes a mare has been improperly bred, a category which follows.

Crosses:

  I remember Aquinia Hanover (Albatross) selling for $20,000, in foal to Jate Lobell in 1992. Her first five foals featured four from the Bret Hanover line, which never crossed particularly well to Albatross mares. Nonetheless, four of those foals took marks, and amassed composite earnings of over $200,000. The 3-year-old of the mare (by Jate Lobell) ended up being Kingsbridge, and the 2-year-old (by Cam Fella) became Beastmaster. The Jate Lobell that sold at Aquinia's side brought over $100,000 as a yearling.

  This will happen with some regularity. A breeder will breed a potentially top mare to a lesser sire, perhaps because he owns shares in the sire, or because he favors the sire for any of a number of reasons. When the foals don't work out as well as had been hoped, off goes the mare. Often, in one final effort to gain some measure of profit from the mare, he inadvertently breeds her properly, and the astute buyer capitalizes.

  Look at who the mare is in foal to. If it is a stallion standing at the farm that consigned the mare, don't factor in the stud fee. It was never paid. Is it refundable? And watch the crosses. Remember that the Most Happy Fella "double-cross", as I call it, has been tried thousands of times in the past ten years, and does not work. So, if you see a Tyler B mare that has been bred five times to No Nukes, with little to show, don't be afraid to buy her if she's in foal to Matts Scooter or Artsplace. Know your crosses.

Race Performance:

  Obviously this is an important consideration for an unproven mare. Deep-pocketed buyers pay big prices for the foals from great race performers, even though I think it's obvious that performance on the race-track and production in the broodmare barn are often unconnected. Nonetheless, if I were selling yearlings for a living, I'd want to fill my barns with great racemares... sell their first two foals, then sell them in foal before they joined the other greats in broodmare wasteland.

  In the proven or producing mare, race record is of no consequence at all. All that matters here are the race records of her offspring.

Conformation:

  Another consideration that is more important in the young mare than the older, proven one. The conformation of the foal is what you're looking for as a broodmare buyer. This is a known commodity in the proven broodmare. Obviously, you don't want a mare that is a runt, or one with huge conformation faults, but these are especially worrisome in the young mare. There have been many examples of poorly conformed mares that produce a string of eye-catching foals.

  There are many other factors that must be considered when purchasing a broodmare. Age is one. Obviously, not too many people would be interested in a 25-year-old mare. I've seen a lot of discussion lately about mare production sliding seriously after 4-5 foals. But I think there are a number of factors that could create this "statistic", if it is one. Mares can tend to be bred to better sires early, then "lesser" ones later on, among other considerations.

  Price is another obvious factor to be kept in mind. I just completed a study of sorts, which indicated that one is far more likely to recoup the broodmare investment, and gain a profit, by purchasing $40-50,000 mares, than cheaper ones. At the same time, the astute buyer can find "steals" in virtually every Mixed Sale.

  I suppose there are many more considerations to be kept in mind when purchasing a broodmare. But probably the most glaring one that has not yet been covered...make sure the mare is in foal!!!

See you in Harrisburg.

 

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